Outlook. Updated summary at a glance

October 24, 2019 - On the basis of the market development we anticipate and the current assessments of our divisions, we assume that Group EBIT in 2019 will be significantly lower than in the previous year.

Company

On the basis of the assumptions presented above for the development of the markets important for us and of the divisions’ current assessments, Daimler expects its total unit sales in 2019 to be in the magnitude of the previous year.

We assume that Group revenue will grow slightly in 2019.

At Mercedes-Benz Cars, revenue should be positively affected in 2019 above all by the new A-Class and B-Class, as well as by the G-Class and the AMG GT. On the other hand, expected exchange-rate developments and lifecycle effects as well as a changed sales structure will have a dampening effect on revenue. Against this background, Mercedes-Benz Cars anticipates revenue at the prior-year level.

In accordance with its adjusted sales projections, Daimler Trucks now expects revenue in the magnitude of the prior year.

The divisions Mercedes-Benz Vans and Daimler Mobility anticipate slight revenue growth.

Daimler Buses expects significant growth in revenue.

The expected decrease in earnings will be partially reflected in the free cash flow of the industrial business. There will also be a negative impact from ongoing high advance expenditure for new products and technologies. In addition, there will be costs for Project Future for the implementation of the new Group structure.

Under these conditions, we assume that the free cash flow of the industrial business will be significantly below the previous year’s level.

As reported in the risk and opportunity report, Daimler is subject to governmental information requests, inquiries, investigations, administrative orders and proceedings as well as court proceedings in connection with diesel exhaust emissions. As legal proceedings are fraught with a large degree of uncertainty, it is possible that in the context of their final resolution, some of the provisions we have recognized for them could prove to be insufficient. As a result, additional expenditures may arise, which may, subject to the further development of the proceedings, negatively affect the profitability expectations listed below, in particular of the divisions Mercedes-Benz Cars and Mercedes-Benz Vans.

Divisions

The individual divisions have the following expectations for their returns in the year 2019:

  • Mercedes-Benz Cars: return on sales of 3% to 5%
  • Daimler Trucks: return on sales of 6% to 8%
  • Mercedes-Benz Vans: return on sales of minus 15% to minus 17%
  • Daimler Buses: return on sales of 5% to 7%
  • Daimler Mobility: return on equity of 17% to 19%

Due to a faster than expected economic downturn in the commercial-vehicle core markets of Europe and North America in the third quarter, earnings at Daimler Trucks will be adversely affected already in the fourth quarter of this year. Against this backdrop, Daimler Trucks now anticipates a return on sales of 6% to 8%.

Our sales development will be significantly affected by the lifecycles of certain model series. Overall, Mercedes-Benz Cars intends to launch more than a dozen new and upgraded models in 2019.

There should be a positive impact on unit sales above all from our new compact cars, including the new B-Class, the A-Class sedan and the new GLB, which is the eighth model in the compact-car segment. We continue to expect sales stimulus also in the high-growth segment of SUVs. Contributions are likely to come from the new GLE and the new GLS, as well as from the upgrade of the popular GLC.

Mercedes-AMG should continue to be a guarantee for our success in the high-performance segment in 2019: More and more customers are enthusiastic about the attractive and wide range of vehicles offered by our sports-car and performance brand, which we are continuously developing further.

The battery-powered smart models make entry into electric mobility more attractive than ever before. They combine the agility of the smart with locally emission-free driving – the ideal combination for urban mobility.

In the NAFTA region, we continue to expect a slight increase in our unit sales compared with 2018. We expect our truck sales in Japan to be of the prior-year magnitude.

In Brazil, we expect our sales volumes to significantly surpass the low level of the previous year.

We now assume that our unit sales in the EU30 region, India and Indonesia will be significantly below the prior-year levels.

The significant decline in unit sales in Turkey will continue to reflect the considerable economic uncertainty in the country.

Growth in unit sales in the EU30 region and the United States is offsetting decreases in other regions such as Russia and Turkey. Sales are developing positively in particular of the new Sprinter, which was launched in mid-2018.

Daimler Buses expects to maintain its market leadership in its most important traditional core markets for buses above eight tons. For the year 2019, we now anticipate slight growth in total unit sales. We assume that unit sales will increase slightly in the EU30 region and significantly in India. In Latin America (excluding Mexico), unit sales are expected to be slightly higher than in 2018.

Daimler Mobility anticipates further growth in contract volume in the year 2019. New business is now expected to be of the prior-year magnitude as a result of a lower penetration rate. We will utilize new market potential through higher efficiency in the traditional sales channels and through the digitization of customer contacts and fleet management.

Investment, R&D expenditures and size of the workforce

In order to achieve our ambitious growth targets, our investment in property, plant and equipment should once again be at a very high level, although slightly lower than in the previous year (2018: €7.5 billion). Mercedes-Benz Cars is continuing its product offensive in 2019. Extensive investment is also planned for the realignment of our German production sites, the expansion of our international production network, and the worldwide production network for electric mobility. In addition, the division is investing in the technological fields of the future.

Daimler Trucks’ capital expenditure in 2019 is primarily for new products and successor generations of existing products, global component projects and the optimization of the worldwide production and sales network.

At Mercedes-Benz Cars, a large proportion of this is being invested in the renewal of the product portfolio. The most important individual projects here are the successor models for the C-Class and S-Class, the new compact cars, and the expansion of the model range of the EQ product and technology brand. We are also working intensively on new, low-emission combustion engines, electric mobility, the connectivity of our vehicles, and innovative safety technologies for automated and autonomousdriving.

Automated driving, electric mobility and connectivity play an important role also at Daimler Trucks. Further important areas are the successor generations for existing products, fuel efficiency and emission reductions, as well as tailored products and technologies for important growth markets.

Against the backdrop of further efficiency progress within the framework of the medium- and long-term measures for structural improvements in our business processes, we assume that our growth targets can be achieved with only a slight increase in the size of the workforce.

Important Notes

This page was revised based on the interim report for the third quarter of 2019 and contains forward-looking statements.

With the guidance for the 2019 financial year, for forecasting the profitability of the divisions, Daimler changed over to using return on sales instead of EBIT for the automotive divisions and return on equity for Daimler Financial Services. This creates a link between our expectations for the current financial year and our strategic targets.

Divisional return on sales and return on equity are forecast on the basis of bandwidths.

For the Daimler Group’s EBIT, we retain the current method of a comparative forecast; however, we adjusted the forecast sensitivities:

  • The forecast “at the prior-year level” represents a change compared with the prior-year figure of -5% to +5%.
  • The forecast “slightly above/below the prior-year level” represents a change compared with the prior-year figure of > +/-5%.
  • The forecast “significantly above/below the prior-year level” represents a change compared with the prior-year figure of > +/-15%.

In addition, for both the Group and the divisions, we adjusted the forecast sensitivities for the less volatile reporting parameters unit sales and revenue as follows:

  • The forecast “at the prior-year level” represents a change compared with the prior-year figure of -2% to +2%.
  • The forecast “slightly above/below the prior-year level” represents a change compared with the prior-year figure of > +/-2%.
  • The forecast “significantly above/below the prior-year level” represents a change compared with the prior-year figure of > +/-7.5%.

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