Outlook

October 29, 2021 - Daimler assumes that strained supply chains and bottlenecks for key components will continue to have a considerable impact on worldwide vehicle production also in the fourth quarter of the year.

The economic conditions for worldwide demand for cars are likely to remain favourable during the rest of the year. It remains difficult to deliver an accurate forecast on how the supply situation will continue to develop. Daimler assumes in the fourth quarter an improved semiconductor supply situation compared with Q3, despite limited visibility and high volatility. The overriding structural shortage of semiconductors is expected to remain an issue in 2022 but should improve compared to 2021.

Based on the divisions’ current assessments, Daimler now expects Group revenues and Group EBIT in full-year to be significantly above the level of the previous year. Daimler assumes that the worldwide semiconductor shortage will affect Mercedes-Benz Cars and Mercedes-Benz Vans unit sales in the fourth quarter. Mercedes-Benz Cars now anticipates slightly lower unit sales in the full-year 2021 than in the previous year. Mercedes-Benz Vans now expects its unit sales in 2021 to be at the prior-year level. Following the drop in demand in 2020, major truck markets are expected to recover in 2021, which should also benefit the sales of Daimler Trucks & Buses. The division continues to anticipate a significant increase in unit sales, mainly reflecting the expectations for the markets in North America, Indonesia and the EU region.

Based on the performance in the first nine month of the year and the above mentioned assumptions, the divisions expect the following adjusted returns in the year 2021:

  • Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans: adjusted return on sales of 10 - 12% (unchanged)
  • Daimler Trucks & Buses: adjusted return on sales of 6 - 8% (unchanged, excluding effects from the spin-off)
  • Daimler Mobility: adjusted return on equity of 20 - 22% (previously: 17 - 19%)

The calculation of the adjusted return on equity of the Daimler Mobility division does not include any impact on division EBIT from the deconsolidation of parts of the financial services business.

The adjusted cash conversion rate (ratio of cash flow to EBIT) for the Mercedes-Benz Cars & Vans division is now expected to be between 0.8 and 1.0 in 2021 (previously: 0.7 and 0.9). For Daimler Trucks & Buses, the adjusted cash conversion rate for full-year 2021 is also likely to be between 0.8 and 1.0 (unchanged, excluding effects from the spin-off).

Investments in property, plant and equipment in 2021 on a group level are expected to be slightly below the magnitude of the previous year (previously: in the magnitude of previous year); research & development investments on a group level are expected to be slightly (previously: significantly) above the prior year’s level.

Daimler now expects the free cash flow of the industrial business for 2021 to be at the prior-year level, excluding spin-off effects from Trucks & Buses (previously: slightly below 2020's figure). This includes payments agreed in the third quarter of 2020 in the context of the settlement with the US-regulators and plaintiff representatives of the consumer class actions relating to diesel emissions, cash-outs due to the restructuring program, higher cash taxes than in 2020, as well as costs related to the planned spin-off of Daimler Truck.

This page was revised based on the Q3 Interim Report 2021 and contains forward-looking statements.

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